It's never too early for Intrade to start putting odds on the next presidential election. For the GOP nomination: 1) Mitt Romney 24.5 percent, 2) Mike Huckabee 11.1 percent, 3) Sarah Palin 10.5 percent, 4) Newt Gingrich 8.9 percent (thanks Bob Novak). No wagers have yet been placed on Bobby Jindal and David Petraeus, but volume overall is pretty light. Plenty of time to get in early. Interestingly, the GOP nominee is given a 40 percent chance of being the next president.
Wednesday, November 12, 2008
The betting money is on Romney in 2012!
From U.S.News
Romney helps GOP Senators (Boston Globe)
http://www.boston.com/news/politics/politicalintelligence/2008/11/romney_seeks_he.html
Posted by Foon Rhee, deputy national political editor November 11, 2008 02:49 PM
Mitt Romney is coming to the aid of two fellow Republicans still locked in election battles that could determine the shape of the US Senate, urging his supporters to donate to their campaigns.
Through his Free and Strong America political action committee, Romney is featuring Senators Saxby Chambliss of Georgia and Norm Coleman of Minnesota.
Chambliss faces a runoff next month with Democrat Jim Martin, after neither won a majority in a three-way race last week. Coleman is in a recount with Democrat Al Franken after a bitter, nasty campaign.
Counting independents Joe Lieberman of Connecticut and Bernie Sanders of Vermont, Democrats will control 57 votes in the Senate that is sworn in in January. They need 60 for a potentially filibuster-proof majority to help push through President-elect Barack Obama's priorities, with the race in Alaska also still up for grabs.
Romney created the PAC after losing out for the Republican presidential nomination as a vehicle to support Republicans and keep his name in the mix for a possible run in 2012.
Romney offers his advice to Barack Obama (Fortune)
This is the latest from Fortune magazine. A great very candidate interview with Mitt Romney. Here is one of the best snipets:
What concerns you the most about the economy right now? Any dangers lurking in the global economy that we didn't hear much about during the campaigns?
Far too little attention was paid to America's long-term competitive position during the campaign. I see four major economic strategies at play in the world today: the first is ours. It combines freedom and free enterprise.
The second is China's. It combines free enterprise with authoritarianism.
The third is Russia's. No longer is Russia's plan for dominance based upon industrial capacity but rather upon controlling energy throughout the world. Hence Russia's cozy relationship with Iran and Venezuela as well as its belligerent entry into Georgia. Russia's strategy is based on energy and authoritarianism.
The fourth strategy is represented by radical violent jihad. The intent of the jihadists is to cause the collapse of the other three, such that the "hidden Imam" or the Caliphate remains the last man standing.
The real challenge for America is how to strengthen our competitive position so that our economy outperforms those of the other three. If we're successful, freedom will be preserved for the world. If we're unsuccessful, the results are unthinkable.
When you talk about making America more competitive, what do you have in mind?
First, America must substantially improve our education system. We've fallen behind, particularly in areas of math and science.
Second, we're going to have to remedy our disproportionate health care cost disadvantage. America spends far more than any other nation as a percent of GDP on health care. This effectively is an enormous tax on the economy and on our businesses.
Third, our national debt is excessive and our entitlement obligations pass a massive burden onto the next generation.
Fourth, tax and regulatory policies weigh down our ability to compete. Specifically, our products carry an embedded tax which makes American goods less competitive abroad and at home.
Fifth, America's apparent retrenchment from the concept of open, free and fair trade could put us further behind other nations that are aggressively seeking trade relations around the world.
Sixth, our lack of an effective energy policy drains our economy by approximately half a trillion dollars a year.
And, finally, the blow that Wall Street has taken may make us less competitive in financing entrepreneurship.
Friday, June 6, 2008
Thursday, May 29, 2008
In a slumping market, Mitt futures surge
New article from THE SLATE
It's another Slate attempt at snide humor, well they got the snide part right but forgot the funny. Anyways it had this to say:
Remarkably, the Romney plan seems to be working. While housing prices plunge, Mitt vice-presidential futures are soaring. On Tuesday, Romney stock hit its highest price on Intrade in six weeks, moving into first place ahead of Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty.
Why the rebound? One of Romney's greatest weaknesses may also be his greatest strength: He's always making up for his last mistake. When Politico asked leading Republicans how to save their party, Romney had the best answer: new ideas, a better agenda, and "a very clear set of principles."
Tuesday, May 20, 2008
A new contract with America?
The NY Times today reveals that there have been meetings in the House where congress members have been kicking around the idea of a new "manifesto" for the Republicans in Congress. According to the times:
That's not a bad start, and I certainly like the idea of a new contract with America. It seems like 1994 was the last time Congress did anything that the American people approved of. I guess if we are going to keep the Republicans from acting like Democrats we are going to have to get it in writing and have them sign it. It's a shame that it's the only way they keep their word- but hey, whatever works! That being said, I have my own ideas about what could be included in this new contract. Some of it comes from the ideas on Newt Gingrich's website and Mitt Romney's website, and I really think that they should not create a new document wtihout consulting the two of them.
A seven point proposal doesn't seem bad, but I think 10 points might be easier for marketing. You know, 10 commandments, 10 amendments in the bill of rights, David Letterman's top ten list, etc. For the first 3, I am just going to go ahead and put in the ideas that they've already came up with.
1) A constitutional limit on federal spending (hopefully this means spending only what you have)
2) A new simplified income tax alternative (hopefully this means a flat tax option for those who choose it)
3) Requiring food stamps and housing aid recipients to meet work requirements
So far so good, these are the type of things that are going to get conservatives energized for the upcoming elections these are also common sense ideas that resonate with all Americans (or at least a strong majority). What else should be included in this contract? Glad you asked, these are the things that I would like to see included (not necessarily in this order).
4) Ending ear marks in congress. It boggles the minds of ordinary Americans to think that spending can be attached to bills in the middle of the night without any debate or vote on that particular spending item. It should boggle the mind, it makes no sense. This would be something that John McCain could help champion as well.
5) Require some form of valid ID for voting in federal elections. The recent supreme court ruling allows for this, and it definitely something the vast majority of American's support. 95% of Americans support this idea according to some polls. And it should sail through Congress.
6) Immigration reform. This is a hot topic, but the GOP is going to have to employ bold strategies if they want to really get something out of this contract. This part of the contract would be one of the most debated, but if you are in the right and the polls show that the vast majority of Americans want the immigration laws enforced (70-80% depending on the poll) - so I dare Obama to oppose it. This bill would consist of:
• finishing the border fence
• implementing an enforceable employer verification system
• cutting of federal funding to sanctuary cities
• encouraging legal immigration
7) Making health care more affordable - again this is a hot issue, and the GOP will not be rewarded for shying away from the tough issues (not in this election cycle) and of course the beauty of the contract is should they win a majority in Congress - they will have the political momentum to actually get all of their points passed into law. After all, they did spell out for the American people what they were going to do once elected and the American people voted for them - it's harder to think of a better referendum than that. Making health care more affordable would consist of:
• Deregulating state markets
• Making all health care expenses tax deductible
• Federal caps on non-economic and punitive damage awards to eliminate frivolous lawsuits
• Promote Innovation in Medi-caid. Letting states spend their money however if most efficient for them.
• Use some of the money currently spent on providing expensive "free care" for the uninsured at emergency rooms to instead help the truly needy buy private insurance.
8) Excellence in Education - this is a touchy issue for conservatives as most of us believe the way to improve education is to give more local control and have the federal government stay out of it. That being said there are still a lot of things that can be done at the federal level to improve education.
• promote school choice and encourage the use of vouchers and charter schools. 67% of African Americans and 60% of Hispanics support school choice for those in low-income or failing schools so this should be no-brainer to be included in the contract.
• promoting performance pay for teachers. 70% of voters support the idea of teachers getting pay based on performance. This is the type of thing that will have the teachers unions out against the Republicans, but they were against us to begin with so nothing has changed. But, it is an idea that most American's agree with and the Democrats will have to oppose because so much of their funding comes from the teacher's union. This puts the Dems at odds with the majority of Americans - again it's a no brainer to be included.
• tax credits for home-schoolers to help off-set educational costs. The vast majority of home schoolers support the GOP already, but this is just needed. It also helps to fire up a grass roots base across the country.
• Promoting excellence in Math & Science - whether it's Newt's "pay for an A" program or Mitt Romney's idea to establish solely math and science high schools these are the type of initiatives that America needs to succeed in the 21st century.
The GOP owns the educational reform issues as we are the only party with any ideas about changes to the education system. The only thing the Dems can counter with is they want to raise taxes to throw more and more money at failing programs. The Dems will get killed at the debates on this issue and it must be included in the contract.
9) Ending Energy Dependence This is something Americans have been crying out for ever since the 1970's and for some reason congress has never delivered. This would call for:
• Promoting Nuclear Power - nothing demonstrates the problem more than the fact that there are electrical plants in the US that burn oil to make electricity.
• Increasing Domestic Production - drilling in ANWR, off-shore and creating new oil refineries will all help increase the supply dramatically and lower the price of gas
• National Standard of Gasoline- currently there are 36 different types of gasoline that the oil companies have to refine - a national standard would not only simplify their jobs, but permit over-seas refineries to produce our gasoline for us. Again dramatically lowering costs.
• Improved smart-grid technology for power distribution
10) Restoring Fiscal Discipline This would consist of:
• Instituting the line-item veto- giving the president the power held by most state governors to veto individual elements of a spending bill and strip out unnecessary spending.
• restoring the supermajority requirement - impose congressional rule requiring a 3/5 super majority to pass any law that would raise taxes
All in all the contact could be the most brilliant move made by Republicans ever. Especially, if John McCain signs it and it is tied to the presidential election. That would keep the race focused on where the Republicans are strongest - on the issues. And it may force the Democrats to come up with their own contract to show what they would do if put into power - which could ultimately be their undoing. After all, if the Dems showing their proposals to improve education, health care, immigration and energy independence it's going to consist of one idea- TAX & SPEND.
Leaders of the Republican Study Committee intend to use a closed-door party meeting on Tuesday to present a seven-point proposal calling for a constitutional limit on federal spending, a new simplified income tax alternative and a proposal to require recipients of food stamps or housing aid to meet work requirements.
That's not a bad start, and I certainly like the idea of a new contract with America. It seems like 1994 was the last time Congress did anything that the American people approved of. I guess if we are going to keep the Republicans from acting like Democrats we are going to have to get it in writing and have them sign it. It's a shame that it's the only way they keep their word- but hey, whatever works! That being said, I have my own ideas about what could be included in this new contract. Some of it comes from the ideas on Newt Gingrich's website and Mitt Romney's website, and I really think that they should not create a new document wtihout consulting the two of them.
A seven point proposal doesn't seem bad, but I think 10 points might be easier for marketing. You know, 10 commandments, 10 amendments in the bill of rights, David Letterman's top ten list, etc. For the first 3, I am just going to go ahead and put in the ideas that they've already came up with.
1) A constitutional limit on federal spending (hopefully this means spending only what you have)
2) A new simplified income tax alternative (hopefully this means a flat tax option for those who choose it)
3) Requiring food stamps and housing aid recipients to meet work requirements
So far so good, these are the type of things that are going to get conservatives energized for the upcoming elections these are also common sense ideas that resonate with all Americans (or at least a strong majority). What else should be included in this contract? Glad you asked, these are the things that I would like to see included (not necessarily in this order).
4) Ending ear marks in congress. It boggles the minds of ordinary Americans to think that spending can be attached to bills in the middle of the night without any debate or vote on that particular spending item. It should boggle the mind, it makes no sense. This would be something that John McCain could help champion as well.
5) Require some form of valid ID for voting in federal elections. The recent supreme court ruling allows for this, and it definitely something the vast majority of American's support. 95% of Americans support this idea according to some polls. And it should sail through Congress.
6) Immigration reform. This is a hot topic, but the GOP is going to have to employ bold strategies if they want to really get something out of this contract. This part of the contract would be one of the most debated, but if you are in the right and the polls show that the vast majority of Americans want the immigration laws enforced (70-80% depending on the poll) - so I dare Obama to oppose it. This bill would consist of:
• finishing the border fence
• implementing an enforceable employer verification system
• cutting of federal funding to sanctuary cities
• encouraging legal immigration
7) Making health care more affordable - again this is a hot issue, and the GOP will not be rewarded for shying away from the tough issues (not in this election cycle) and of course the beauty of the contract is should they win a majority in Congress - they will have the political momentum to actually get all of their points passed into law. After all, they did spell out for the American people what they were going to do once elected and the American people voted for them - it's harder to think of a better referendum than that. Making health care more affordable would consist of:
• Deregulating state markets
• Making all health care expenses tax deductible
• Federal caps on non-economic and punitive damage awards to eliminate frivolous lawsuits
• Promote Innovation in Medi-caid. Letting states spend their money however if most efficient for them.
• Use some of the money currently spent on providing expensive "free care" for the uninsured at emergency rooms to instead help the truly needy buy private insurance.
8) Excellence in Education - this is a touchy issue for conservatives as most of us believe the way to improve education is to give more local control and have the federal government stay out of it. That being said there are still a lot of things that can be done at the federal level to improve education.
• promote school choice and encourage the use of vouchers and charter schools. 67% of African Americans and 60% of Hispanics support school choice for those in low-income or failing schools so this should be no-brainer to be included in the contract.
• promoting performance pay for teachers. 70% of voters support the idea of teachers getting pay based on performance. This is the type of thing that will have the teachers unions out against the Republicans, but they were against us to begin with so nothing has changed. But, it is an idea that most American's agree with and the Democrats will have to oppose because so much of their funding comes from the teacher's union. This puts the Dems at odds with the majority of Americans - again it's a no brainer to be included.
• tax credits for home-schoolers to help off-set educational costs. The vast majority of home schoolers support the GOP already, but this is just needed. It also helps to fire up a grass roots base across the country.
• Promoting excellence in Math & Science - whether it's Newt's "pay for an A" program or Mitt Romney's idea to establish solely math and science high schools these are the type of initiatives that America needs to succeed in the 21st century.
The GOP owns the educational reform issues as we are the only party with any ideas about changes to the education system. The only thing the Dems can counter with is they want to raise taxes to throw more and more money at failing programs. The Dems will get killed at the debates on this issue and it must be included in the contract.
9) Ending Energy Dependence This is something Americans have been crying out for ever since the 1970's and for some reason congress has never delivered. This would call for:
• Promoting Nuclear Power - nothing demonstrates the problem more than the fact that there are electrical plants in the US that burn oil to make electricity.
• Increasing Domestic Production - drilling in ANWR, off-shore and creating new oil refineries will all help increase the supply dramatically and lower the price of gas
• National Standard of Gasoline- currently there are 36 different types of gasoline that the oil companies have to refine - a national standard would not only simplify their jobs, but permit over-seas refineries to produce our gasoline for us. Again dramatically lowering costs.
• Improved smart-grid technology for power distribution
10) Restoring Fiscal Discipline This would consist of:
• Instituting the line-item veto- giving the president the power held by most state governors to veto individual elements of a spending bill and strip out unnecessary spending.
• restoring the supermajority requirement - impose congressional rule requiring a 3/5 super majority to pass any law that would raise taxes
All in all the contact could be the most brilliant move made by Republicans ever. Especially, if John McCain signs it and it is tied to the presidential election. That would keep the race focused on where the Republicans are strongest - on the issues. And it may force the Democrats to come up with their own contract to show what they would do if put into power - which could ultimately be their undoing. After all, if the Dems showing their proposals to improve education, health care, immigration and energy independence it's going to consist of one idea- TAX & SPEND.
Obama Leaves Romney Speechless
Mitt demonstrates yet again the ability to be unflappable under pressure. He makes some great points to Wolf, and was able to do this whole interview without making a joke about Obama getting assassinated.
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