Monday, September 24, 2007

Romney Wins Michigan Staw Poll!

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney came out on top this weekend at the biggest gathering of Michigan Republicans before their January 15th primary. At the Michigan Republican Leadership Conference, Romney, whose father served as governor of the Wolverine State, took 39% in a straw poll sponsored by The Hotline.

Romney led Arizona Senator John McCain, who received 27%, and Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX), with about 11%. While the 979 people who cast ballots are much more die-hard than the Michigan electorate as a whole, the results indicate that top Michigan Republicans are skewed toward their prodigal son. If Romney’s lead holds in Iowa and New Hampshire, a win in Michigan could make it hard for the rest of the field to find their first win.

Romney, McCain, Paul, former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, Rep. Duncan Hunter and former Senator Fred Thompson all addressed Michigan Republicans during the conference. The poll was conducted Friday and Saturday, and the results were unofficially certified by the Michigan Republican Party.

The results, which come close to mirroring recent polls (Romney leads by 7.6% in the latest RCP Michigan Average) again show that Thompson’s rise to the top will not be easy. McCain’s second-place finish, despite a blow he suffered when Michigan Attorney General Mike Cox left his camp last week, may mean he still has some fight left in him, though he places fourth in the RCP Average. And Paul, who beat out both Thompson and Giuliani, continues to show surprising grassroots-level support. Whether he can translate that into votes remains, however, to be seen.
Full results after the jump.

Full Results
Romney 39% (383 votes)
McCain 27 (260)
Paul 11 (106)
Giulaini 11 (104)
Thompson 7 (70)
Huckabee 3 (25)
Hunter 1 (12)
Brownback >1 (3)
Tancredo 0 (0)
Uncommitted 2 (16)


Of course, the reason this is extremely interesting is that the Romney name is so popular in Michigan that the Republicans would actually have a good chance of carrying the state in a Presidential election for the first time since 1988.

That is 17 more electoral college votes going to the GOP. That would give Mitt Romney a victory in the 293- 235 range assuming Hillary was able to capture all of the same electoral votes that John Kerry did.

Which brings up another interesting point, for months now we've been listening to Rudy Giuliani say that he's the only one that can beat Hillary. What is he basing that on? Some random polling data? From what I've seen Giuliani has shown the ability to do is- pull out of the Iowa straw poll, and lose the Michigan poll as well. He can't put together any type of mobility to show support from ground organization in any of the straw polls. He is losing in New Hampshire, Iowa, Michigan and Nevada and is unlikely to carry the south, yet somehow still thinks he's the only one that can beat Hillary???

Can anyone explain that to me? If Rudy Giuliani is incapable of organizing a team capable of getting him the lead in a single early state, or win a single straw poll - what makes him think he can beat Hillary? Let alone run the White House and serve as Commander in Chief?

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